Corey Davis Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Corey Davis

NFL · Player Props

Corey Davis

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM EST

Analysis

Corey Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.49 seconds per snap.
Corey Davis's possession skills have improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 57.4% to 61.8%.
Corey Davis's pass-game effectiveness has improved this season, averaging 10.16 yards-per-target compared to a measly 8.44 figure last season.
The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 9th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (164.0) versus wideouts this year.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Corey Davis has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (69.0 per game) than he did last year (95.0 per game).
Corey Davis's 38.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 53.1.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.27 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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