Corey Davis Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Corey Davis

NFL · Player Props

Corey Davis

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:56 PM EST

Analysis

Corey Davis Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+400/-855).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -848 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -855.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 62.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Corey Davis's possession skills have improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 57.4% to 67.4%.
Corey Davis ranks in the 83rd percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.33 per game.

Favors Under

The forecast calls for 22-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Corey Davis has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (82.0 per game) than he did last year (95.0 per game).
Corey Davis's 42.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 53.1.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.8%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.8%).

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