Corey Davis Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Corey Davis

NFL · Player Props

Corey Davis

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Corey Davis Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+318/-582).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +344 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +318.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The New York Jets have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 69.5 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 8th-most in football.
Corey Davis has notched a colossal 94.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile among wide receivers.
Corey Davis's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 57.4% to 66.9%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 11th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Corey Davis's 39.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 53.1.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (60.3%) versus wide receivers this year (60.3%).
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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