Corey Davis Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Corey Davis

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:10 PM EST

Analysis

Corey Davis Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+410/-700).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Corey Davis to be much more involved in his offense's passing game near the goal line this week (13.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (8.7% in games he has played).
Corey Davis has accrued a whopping 96.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among WRs.
Corey Davis grades out in the 91st percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.42 per game.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the NFL.
Corey Davis's 37.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 53.1.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the 6th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.