Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Cordarrelle Patterson

NFL · Player Props

Cordarrelle Patterson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:40 PM EST

Analysis

Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-105/-126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 54.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 54.5 @ -126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 45.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Cordarrelle Patterson has been a much bigger part of his team's run game this season (59.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (45.4%).
Cordarrelle Patterson has grinded out 48.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (79th percentile).
Cordarrelle Patterson's rushing effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, averaging 6.33 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.94 mark last year.
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles rank as the 6th-worst DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.1 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have run for the 9th-least yards in the NFL (just 103 per game) versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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