Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Cordarrelle Patterson

NFL · Player Props

Cordarrelle Patterson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:45 PM UTC

Analysis

Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-225).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -207 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -225.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-most run-centric team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 44.9% red zone run rate.
Cordarrelle Patterson has received 42.4% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
Cordarrelle Patterson has run for 0.42 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (85th percentile).
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles rank as the 6th-worst DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have used some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.1 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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