Cordarrelle Patterson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Cordarrelle Patterson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 11, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Cordarrelle Patterson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers defense has surrendered the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (42.0) vs. running backs this year.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has shown bad efficiency vs. RBs this year, giving up 7.19 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in football.
The Carolina Panthers safeties grade out as the 7th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 44.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.7 plays per game.
Cordarrelle Patterson has posted quite a few less air yards this year (3.0 per game) than he did last year (16.0 per game).
Cordarrelle Patterson's 11.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 23.2.