Cooper Kupp Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Cooper Kupp

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Cooper Kupp Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-150/+120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 66.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Cooper Kupp to notch 12.6 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
Cooper Kupp's 82.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 71.9.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.1%) to WRs this year (62.1%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks profile as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Los Angeles Rams have incorporated play action on just 21.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
The Los Angeles Rams have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.7% of the time since the start of last season (4th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.