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Cooper Kupp Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-150/+120).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.Cooper Kupp has been a big part of his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 33.3% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 100th percentile among WRs.Cooper Kupp has totaled a colossal 97.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among WRs.Cooper Kupp's 72.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 98th percentile for wideouts.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Rams are an enormous 10.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.The Los Angeles Rams have run the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.4 plays per game.The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.The Los Angeles Rams have incorporated play action on a mere 21.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
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