Colt McCoy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Colt McCoy

NFL · Player Props

Colt McCoy

QB · Arizona Cardinals

TD Passes

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 22, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Colt McCoy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+192/-248).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -245 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -248.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to start backup QB Colt McCoy in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Arizona Cardinals have utilized play action on 30.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 54.5% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Cardinals to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the 2nd-least passing touchdowns in the league: 1.00 per game this year.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.

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