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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Arizona Cardinals vs Chicago Bears

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+140/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Bears offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.50 seconds per play.

Our trusted projections expect Cole Kmet to accumulate 4.5 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 81st percentile among TEs.

In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Bears ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.

Cole Kmet's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 83.1% to 91.1%.

When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Arizona's group of LBs has been very bad this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may decline.

Cole Kmet's 36.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 41.2.

Cole Kmet's receiving performance has diminished this year, compiling a mere 3.9 adjusted catches vs 4.9 last year.

The Cardinals pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (72.2%) versus TEs this year (72.2%).

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