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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-159/+123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +125 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a huge 7-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bears to pass on 62.6% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week.

The Chicago Bears have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Minnesota Vikings defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (38.4 per game) this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Cole Kmet has been a much smaller part of his team's passing attack this season (12.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (20.4%).

Cole Kmet's 3.8 adjusted catches per game this season conveys a meaningful diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 4.9 mark.

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