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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

San Francisco 49ers vs Chicago Bears

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-105/-125).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.

The predictive model expects the Bears to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 61.9% pass rate.

The Chicago Bears have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.8 plays per game.

In this week's game, Cole Kmet is projected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 75th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.2 targets.

The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 123.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.

Cole Kmet's 27.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 41.2.

Cole Kmet's 3.8 adjusted receptions per game this season reflects a noteable drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last season's 4.9 rate.

When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, San Francisco's LB corps has been fantastic this year, ranking as the best in the league.

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