Cole Kmet Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a heavy 9.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
In this week's game, Cole Kmet is anticipated by the projection model to slot into the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.9 targets.
Cole Kmet's 5.1 adjusted catches per game this season reflects a remarkable growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 3.0 figure.
Cole Kmet's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 74.3% to 84.3%.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bears as the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by the projections to call only 63.9 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decline in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Cole Kmet has been utilized much less in his offense's pass attack.
When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
The Saints pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61.6%) to TEs this year (61.6%).

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