Cole Kmet Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:36 PM EST

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are an enormous 12.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to earn 5.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet has been a big part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 20.3% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 97th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet has been among the top TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 3.2 receptions per game while grading out in the 83rd percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.10 seconds per play.
Cole Kmet's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.3% to 68.8%.

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