Cole Kmet Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Chicago Bears · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 3:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this contest, Cole Kmet is forecasted by the model to land in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.5 targets.
Cole Kmet's play as a receiver has been refined this year, notching 5.1 adjusted catches vs just 3.0 last year.
Cole Kmet's 84.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a substantial progression in his pass-catching talent over last season's 74.3% mark.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 48.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Bears offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.87 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a measly 29.9 per game) this year.
Cole Kmet's 73.8% Route Participation Rate this season shows a significant drop-off in his pass game utilization over last season's 84.0% figure.
The Browns linebackers project as the 7th-best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

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