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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-165/+135).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

In this week's game, Cole Kmet is predicted by the projection model to finish in the 90th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.9 targets.

Cole Kmet's 5.1 adjusted catches per game this season signifies a meaningful improvement in his pass-catching ability over last season's 3.0 figure.

Cole Kmet's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 74.3% to 82.5%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by the projections to call only 60.8 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.

Cole Kmet's 73.9% Route Participation% this year conveys a remarkable diminishment in his pass game utilization over last year's 84.0% mark.

When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Bears ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year.

This year, the imposing Detroit Lions defense has given up a mere 69.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 10th-best rate in the league.

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