Cole Kmet Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 10, 2023 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-190/+145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this week's contest, Cole Kmet is expected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 88th percentile among TEs with 5.7 targets.
With an elite 18.8% Target Share (92nd percentile) this year, Cole Kmet rates as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads in the league.
Cole Kmet's 5.2 adjusted receptions per game this season reflects an impressive progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 3.0 rate.
Cole Kmet's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 74.3% to 84.5%.
The Panthers safeties grade out as the worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to pass rush.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see only 125.5 total plays called: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Panthers, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.4 per game) this year.
The Chicago Bears offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.

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