Cole Kmet Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to total 4.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among TEs.
The Chicago Bears offensive line has afforded their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.
Cole Kmet's 30.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 38.7.
The Chicago Bears O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

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