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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+150/-190).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.

THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to accumulate 4.2 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among TEs.

The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 49.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.0 plays per game.

Cole Kmet's 31.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 38.7.

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