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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-140/+110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to earn 3.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among TEs.

Cole Kmet has been a key part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 17.3% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 90th percentile among TEs.

Cole Kmet has been among the best TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 3.2 receptions per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.

The Houston Texans safeties project as the worst safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per snap.

The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

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