Cole Kmet Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.0 (-105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
Cole Kmet has run a route on 83.3% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking in the 97th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to total 5.3 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet has been among the leading TE receiving threats this year, averaging an impressive 2.8 receptions per game while checking in at the 77th percentile.
Cole Kmet's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 68.2% to 73.6%.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 43.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.42 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-least in football.

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