Cole Kmet Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+145/-175).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Cole Kmet has run a route on 82.4% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to notch 4.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 68.2% to 71.5%.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Completion% in the league (77.9%) vs. tight ends this year (77.9%).

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 8.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 39.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 7th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

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