Cole Kmet Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

New York Jets vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears will be starting backup quarterback Trevor Siemian in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Cole Kmet has run a route on 81.4% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to earn 4.5 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 85th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 68.2% to 74.1%.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.6 plays per game.
Cole Kmet's receiving performance has declined this year, totaling a measly 2.4 yards per game vs 3.6 last year.

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