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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a giant 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.

The Bears have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Bears grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year.

Cole Kmet grades out as one of the most reliable receivers in football among TEs, completing a remarkable 84.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 88th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chicago Bears are projected by the projection model to run just 64.3 total plays in this contest: the 8th-fewest on the slate this week.

The forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Cole Kmet has been a much smaller piece of his offense's pass attack this year (11.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (20.4%).

Cole Kmet has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).

Cole Kmet's 40.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year marks an impressive decrease in his receiving ability over last year's 48.0 mark.

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