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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Bears, who are heavy -9.5-point underdogs.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 63.3% of their plays: the 4th-highest clip among all teams this week.

The Bears have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.3 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Detroit Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Bears to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Cole Kmet has been a much smaller part of his team's passing offense this year (14.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (20.4%).

The Detroit Lions defense has yielded the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 36.0) vs. TEs this year.

The Detroit Lions pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus tight ends this year, surrendering 5.82 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the fewest in football.

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Detroit's safety corps has been fantastic this year, profiling as the best in football.

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