Cole Kmet Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:46 AM EST

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a heavy 9.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
In this week's game, Cole Kmet is anticipated by the projection model to slot into the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.9 targets.
In regards to air yards, Cole Kmet ranks in the lofty 83rd percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating a massive 29.0 per game.
Cole Kmet has totaled a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (49.0) this season than he did last season (32.0).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bears as the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by the projections to call only 63.9 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decline in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Cole Kmet has been utilized much less in his offense's pass attack.
When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
The Saints pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61.6%) to TEs this year (61.6%).