Cole Kmet Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 6, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
In this game, Cole Kmet is forecasted by the projection model to position himself in the 88th percentile among tight ends with 5.4 targets.
After accumulating 32.0 air yards per game last season, Cole Kmet has undergone big improvement this season, currently sitting at 43.0 per game.
Cole Kmet's 50.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season reflects a a material growth in his receiving skills over last season's 32.0 rate.
With a fantastic 8.4 adjusted yards per target (84th percentile) this year, Cole Kmet has been among the top pass-game TEs in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Bears to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.8 plays per game.
Cole Kmet has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (71.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (84.0%).
This year, the fierce Commanders defense has given up a mere 18.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the fewest in the NFL.

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