Cole Kmet Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are an enormous 12.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to earn 5.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet has been a big part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 20.3% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 97th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet has totaled a whopping 33.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 88th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.10 seconds per play.
Cole Kmet's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.3% to 68.8%.
Cole Kmet's pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, averaging a measly 6.84 yards-per-target compared to a 8.00 figure last year.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.07 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-least in football.

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