Cole Kmet Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 41.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this week's game, Cole Kmet is predicted by the projection model to finish in the 90th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.9 targets.
In regards to air yards, Cole Kmet ranks in the lofty 85th percentile among tight ends this year, totaling a massive 31.0 per game.
Cole Kmet has posted substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (50.0) this season than he did last season (32.0).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by the projections to call only 60.8 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
Cole Kmet's 73.9% Route Participation% this year conveys a remarkable diminishment in his pass game utilization over last year's 84.0% mark.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Bears ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year.
This year, the imposing Detroit Lions defense has given up a mere 69.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 10th-best rate in the league.

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