Cole Kmet Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to accumulate 4.2 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet's skills in generating extra yardage have gotten better this season, totaling 9.60 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 3.97 mark last season.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 49.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.0 plays per game.
Cole Kmet has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (22.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).

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