Cole Kmet Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 14, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-114/-116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Cole Kmet has run a route on 83.0% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 95th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to garner 4.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 68.2% to 76.3%.
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 45.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 49.2 plays per game.
Cole Kmet has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (13.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).

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