Cole Kmet Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 1:55 AM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (+110/-147).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to earn 4.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet's 36.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 92nd percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
Cole Kmet has notched far fewer air yards this year (10.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

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