Cole Kmet Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to earn 3.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet has been a key part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 17.3% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet has totaled a monstrous 39.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet has been among the best tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 33.0 yards per game while grading out in the 77th percentile.
The Houston Texans defense has allowed the 9th-most receiving yards per game in the league (54.0) to TEs since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

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