Cole Kmet Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-110/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Cole Kmet has run a route on 84.1% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to notch 5.9 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
Cole Kmet has accrued far fewer air yards this season (35.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).

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