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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-110/-115).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bears are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: 6th-most in football.
  • Cole Kmet has run a route on 84.1% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
  • THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to notch 5.9 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among TEs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Chicago Bears have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
  • Cole Kmet has accrued far fewer air yards this season (35.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).

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