Cole Kmet Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-104/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
Cole Kmet has run a route on 81.0% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to accrue 4.4 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 68.2% to 74.2%.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 46.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
Cole Kmet has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (30.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).

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