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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-104/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -128.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
  • Cole Kmet has run a route on 81.0% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
  • THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to accrue 4.4 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
  • Cole Kmet's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 68.2% to 74.2%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 46.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
  • Cole Kmet has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (30.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).

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