Cole Kmet Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
Cole Kmet's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 68.2% to 75.4%.
Cole Kmet's receiving effectiveness has improved this year, notching 8.18 yards-per-target compared to a measly 6.95 rate last year.
Cole Kmet's talent in grinding out extra yardage have improved this year, accumulating 6.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 3.97 rate last year.
The Detroit Lions defense has surrendered the 6th-most receiving yards per game in football (65.0) to TEs this year.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 39.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.

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