Cole Kmet Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to total 5.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet has compiled a whopping 44.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet's 38.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 90th percentile for tight ends.
Cole Kmet has been among the best pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 36.0 yards per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has conceded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 37.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against TEs since the start of last season, allowing 7.02 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in the league.

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