Cole Kmet Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+418/-922).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +434 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +418.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
Cole Kmet has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which ranks in the 85th percentile among TEs.
The Chicago Bears offensive line has afforded their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.
Cole Kmet has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (23.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
Cole Kmet's 30.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 38.7.
The Chicago Bears O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Cole Kmet ranks in the 1st percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.

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