Cole Kmet Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+439/-1007).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Cole Kmet has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 18.2% this year, which ranks him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
The New England Patriots defense has allowed the most passing TDs in football to tight ends: 0.83 per game this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.0 plays per game.
Cole Kmet has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (22.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
Cole Kmet's 31.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 38.7.
The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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