Cole Kmet Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 13, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+559/-1587).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -839 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1587.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Cole Kmet has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 19.7% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 91st percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet's 37.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 92nd percentile for tight ends.
Cole Kmet's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 68.2% to 76.3%.
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 49.2 plays per game.
Cole Kmet has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (13.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Cole Kmet has not scored a touchdown through the air this year.

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