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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

Cole Kmet Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+422/-940).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +432 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +422.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in football.

Cole Kmet's 36.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 92nd percentile for TEs.

The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.

THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to be a much smaller part of his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (19.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (25.0% in games he has played).

Cole Kmet has notched far fewer air yards this year (10.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).

The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

Cole Kmet's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 68.2% to 64.5%.

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