Cole Kmet Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+400/-852).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +433 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +400.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Cole Kmet has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 19.7% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 91st percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet has totaled a monstrous 39.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet's 37.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 90th percentile for TEs.
The Houston Texans defense has allowed the 7th-most TDs through the air in football to tight ends: 0.47 per game since the start of last season.
The Houston Texans safeties project as the worst safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in football.
Cole Kmet ranks in the 1st percentile among TEs as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a measly 0.00 per game.

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