Cole Kmet Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 12:05 AM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+439/-1006).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -959 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1006.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a big 10-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Cole Kmet has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 19.7% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet has compiled a monstrous 41.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet's 37.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 90th percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Cole Kmet grades out in the 1st percentile among TEs as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers project as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on just 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.