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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 10

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Cole Kmet Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+295/-532).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +363 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +295.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in the league.

Cole Kmet's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 68.2% to 75.4%.

Cole Kmet grades out in the 90th percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.33 per game.

The Detroit Lions pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Completion% in the NFL (79.4%) to TEs this year (79.4%).

The Detroit Lions defense has surrendered the 4th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL to tight ends: 0.62 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to be much less involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone this week (20.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (26.1% in games he has played).

Cole Kmet has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (24.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).

More Cole Kmet Player Props

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