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Colby Parkinson

Colby Parkinson Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

Colby Parkinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+138/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -180.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Seahawks are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

Colby Parkinson's 13.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 4.6.

Colby Parkinson has been among the best possession receivers in football among tight ends, catching an impressive 79.0% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 87th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down just 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

The Seattle Seahawks have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.2% of their plays since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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