Colby Parkinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Colby Parkinson

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Colby Parkinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Colby Parkinson has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league among TEs, completing a stellar 78.3% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 81st percentile.
Colby Parkinson has been among the most effective receivers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging an impressive 9.82 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 100th percentile.
Colby Parkinson has been among the best TEs in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a terrific 6.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 84th percentile.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-slowest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.01 seconds per play.
The Carolina Panthers defense has yielded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 37.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.73 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in football.
The Carolina Panthers safeties project as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.