Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has done a better job at picking up extra ground yardage this year, totaling 3.43 yards-after-contact compared to a 2.39 figure last year.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have incorporated some form of misdirection on 67.9% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 34.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be a much smaller piece of his team's running game this week (36.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (47.4% in games he has played).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 2nd-least yards in the NFL (just 76 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The Buffalo Bills defensive ends profile as the 5th-best DE corps in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.