Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 11, 2022 12:10 AM UTC

Analysis

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+143/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +168 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has run for 0.50 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (91st percentile).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the most touchdowns in football (1.00 per game) versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 36.6% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends profile as the 8th-best DE corps in football this year with their run defense.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.