Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+226/-354).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -340 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -354.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 64.8 plays per game.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been given 38.9% of his team's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, placing him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the least run-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 35.6% red zone run rate.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 3rd-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.58 per game) versus the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.